CO-02, CO-05, CO-06: Primary Predictions Thread

Another busy night tonight, with three primaries in Colorado:

  • CO-02 (D): Jared Polis, Joan Fitzgerald and William Shafroth
  • CO-05 (R): Doug Lamborn, Jeff Crank and Bentley Rayburn
  • CO-06 (R): Steve Ward, Mike Coffman, Will Armstrong and Ted Harvey

Care to make any guesses? Also, by what margin will Jim Himes beat nutjob Lee Whitnum in CT-04’s Democratic primary? Polls close in Colorado at 9pm Eastern, and in Connecticut at 8pm.

48 thoughts on “CO-02, CO-05, CO-06: Primary Predictions Thread”

  1. CO-02: I would have to say Joan Fitzgerald, because she has the establishment behind her.

    CO-05: For now, I’ll give this to Lamborn, because the vote against him is divided enough to allow him to squeak up the middle, since I understand you don’t need a majority to win in a Colorado primary.

    CO-06: I think Will Armstrong will squeak in here.

    I know nothing about the primary to replace Tancredo, so honestly I just put all four of those names (Coffman, Harvey, Armstrong and Ward) in a hat, shook it, and then picked one at random, and it was Armstrong.

    Sorry, not exactly a scientific way of guessing.

  2. I will agree with the poster above me and predict:

    Co-2: Fitzgerald

    Co-5: Lamborn

    Co-6: Armstrong

    I would really perfer Jeff Crank and Mike Coffman to win in Co-5 and CO-6, but I think Lamborn will probably win by a decient margin and Coffman will make it really close, but fall somewhat short.

  3. I predict that Shafroth, Crank, and Harvey will win tonight. As for the CT-4 race, Himes will trounce Whitnum somewhere around 86% to 14%.

  4. because I’m always wrong.  The non-frontrunners always do either way better or way worse than I expect.

    CO-2: Polis’ pockets aren’t enough to beat Fitzgerald’s establishment support.  Fitzgerald wins by more than 10 points, with Shafroth and the rest getting 10-15% at best.

    CO-5: This is hard.  Lamborn is despised by a lot of Republicans, but his opponents suck.  In a different environment, Lamborn would win easily against those two, but there seems to be an anti-incumbent feeling so, I still give it to Lamborn, but by less than 5% over Crank and nowhere near 50%.  Rayburn comes in a distant third.

    CO-6: Coffman will get at least 50%, maybe even 60%.  Armstrong gets around 30% and everyone else is in the single digits.  He’s been state Treasurer and Sec. of State, so I don’t see how he loses.

  5. CO-06:  Coffman in a landslide.

    CO-05:  Lamborn.  So, my only good DC story is this: my dad has a business trip to DC last March, and the whole family goes.  We’re visiting Lampson’s office to pick up gallery passes for the House side.  Across the hall is Lamborn’s office, with the door closed.  As we’re leaving, I point at the nameplate and tell my folks, just cause I was showboating general congressional knowledge, “by the way, that guy is totally losing his primary this fall.  one term wonder!”  I turn back around and am face to face with a 30ish woman, who sez to me “was there anything else you wanted to say about my boss?” and then walks past me.  I’m mortified, keep walking away with my posse, and then turn and call back “well, I’m sure Jeff Crank will hire you when he wins!”  I keep on walking in shame, but my mom looks back and insists she flashed me a thumbs-up sign for that one.

    Guess she was a holdover from Hefley’s office…

    Anyway, taught me a lesson about running your mouth when you don’t know who’s listening.

    Also, taught me a lesson about predictions in politics!  The Crank/Rayburn pact combusted, and now Lamborn is gonna get re-elected anyway.  Boo.

    And finally, CO-02.  My heart wants Polis (and yes, it’s just cuz he’s gay, lame-o identity politics I know), but my head says Fitz-Gerald by… 5.5 points.  

  6. My percentage predictions are the following:

    CO-2:Shafroth 35%

        Fitzgearld 33%

        Polis 32%

    CO-5:Crank 41%

        Lamborn 36%

        Rayburn 23%

    CO-6:Harvey 34%

        Coffman 33%

        Armstrong 24%

        Ward 9%

    CT-4:Himes 86%

        Whitnum 14%

  7. CO-02: Polis 36%, Fitz-gerald 34%, Shafroth 30%.

    CO-05: Lamborn 52%, Crank 37%, Rayburn 11%

    CO-06: Coffman 40%, Armstrong 39%, Harvey 12%, Ward 9%

    CT-02: Himes 85%, Whitnum 15%

  8. Even though the races there are a foregone conclusion, it will be interesting to see the raw numbers.  I didn’t know what to think of Kay Barnes’ chance in Missouri until the primary where she got more votes than Sam Graves, despite a heavily contested Republican governor’s primary driving turnout.

  10. CO-02: I think Fitzgerald will pull it out beacuse of more rural parts of the district but if it’s higher turnout Polis might pull it out and I really hope he does. Hard not to like a primary when the conservative candidate (Fitzgerald) is endorsed by the Progressive Democrats of America.

    CO-05: The anti-Lamborn vote will be split again although I’d love to see a local Crank win.

    CO-06. Coffman will just hold off a strong challenge by Armstrong which is good beacuse then Fitzgerald can replace him as SoS.

  13. I havn’t been following the race to succeed Tancredo at all.

    Fitzgerald- 46%

    Polis- 34%

    Shfroth- 20%

    __________________

    Lamborn- 44%

    Crank- 39%

    Rayburn- 17%

  15. That Ted Harvey wins tonight because he is a good candidate and will do soooo much for CO-6. I also want Will Shafroth to win and Jared Polis to lose because I do not agree with Polis’ ideology, unlike shafroth. I also really really want Jeff Crank to win because Congressman Lamborn is not doing much for his own district other than gaining seinority.

  17. Fitzgerald narrowly, I don’t know the dynamics here. Coffman will win easily and good riddance, he’ll be a huge improvement over Tancredo. Lamborn will also dispance with Crank again this time, easily as Crank hasn’t run as good a campaign and doesn’t seem to have the same strength, and the anti-vote is split. Still incumbency…I will give percentages here, Lamborn with 55%.  

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